Is Us Housing Back In Frothy Territory. The Us Housing

Is US Housing Back in Frothy Territory? The US housing bubble and crash of the early 21st Century was unusual in that it was a truly national phenomenon. Historically, the bulk of residential real estate boom-bust episodes were usually regional. The consolidation of the US banking system, whereby banks merged across state borders, helped to sow the conditions where housing cycles became less provincial. Additionally, the growth of the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) facilitated the expansion of a national mortgage market. Recently, some commentators have been noting that the post-Great Recession recovery in US housing has reached dangerous levels, thereby implying that the sector could be experiencing another bubble. Consequently,†¦show more content†¦Meanwhile, yearly house price inflation rates in the top 20 cities are running in line with the national trend. The cities with the highest rates of increase are Seattle (+12%), Portland (+10%) and Dallas (+9%). Lower tier property prices appear to be more vo latile than their high end counterparts in both Seattle and Portland. Meanwhile, the three cities with the lowest rates of house price inflation are New York (+3%), Washington (+4%) and Cleveland (+5%). Furthermore, rising house prices appear to be having an adverse impact on affordability. According to the National Association of Realtors, rising prices are offsetting higher disposable incomes and stable mortgage rates, and affordability has consequently been declining since January 2015. Partly driving the increase in prices is a lack of available supply of existing single family homes for sale. The number of months’ of unsold inventory was just below 4 in March and availability has been gradually falling since 2014. Additionally, there is a relatively tight supply situation for new single family homes for sale, which is also helping to support prices. Housing starts for single family homes have been gradually recovering to an annual construction rate of 800K since the Great Recession, but they remain substantially below the 1.2 million peak level that prevailed during the previous expansion. Rising prices should seemingly encourage higher levels of homebuilding activity. The apparent lack of